Today we got the patch test realm (or PTR) updated for the Shadowlands prepatch event. This includes the level squish, stat squish, corruption removal, unpruning and other ability changes, and the start of the prepatch event story. I think we’ve finally reached a time where it makes real sense to start full speculation on the Shadowlands release date.
Without further ado: Shadowlands prepatch will be September 15, 2020. And the Shadowlands release date will be October 27, 2020. After the break, I provide my reasoning, with a couple of sources and some ptr/prepatch/launch date history. If you want to know why, want to argue with me about why, or want some data to rub in your friends faces about why, then click the more link below.
PTR dates: according to wowhead posts for BFA and Legion the prepatches hit the PTR on the following dates:
- Legion: 6/14/2016 (at least this is when the patch notes for the PTR went up)
- BFA: 6/14/2018
Then, the actual prepatches hit:
- Legion: 7/19/2016
- BFA: 7/17/2018
Then the expansions released:
- Legion: 8/30/2016
- BFA: 8/14/2018
The Math: PTR to prepatch was 1 month & 5 days, then about 6 weeks to the launch of the expansion for Legion. BFA went 1 month 3 days after the PTR to the prepatch, then a little under 1 month to the expansion from there. Splitting the difference in PTR to prepatch times, 8/11/20 to 9/15/20 is 1 month 4 days and lands on a Tuesday as is standard. However, I wouldn’t be terribly shocked to see 9/22/20 if the PTR has trouble. Then 6 weeks from 9/22 would be 10/27/20. However, even if the prepatch ends up being on the 9/22, I’d still say the 27th of October is likely for the expansion, given that 6 weeks is actually LONGER than either of the last 2 expansions took, 10/27/20 is only 5 weeks from that later prepatch time. I don’t expect them to push it into November, as they’re going to want as much playtime (and time to fix bugs) as possible before the holidays.
What do you think? Do you agree or no and why do you think what you think about it? Regardless of what we think about the release date, though, I think most all of us are ready to get out of BFA and into something else.